Lib Dem meltdown in Cambridgeshire?

It has been interesting to watch the campaigning across Cambridgeshire. A few years ago the Lib Dems seemed to enjoy increasing popular support. It is likely that this was as a result of a backlash against Labour over the Iraq war rather than any positive policies put forward by the Lib Dems.

During this Lib Dem high point each election was seen as a chance to increase the number of seats won.

Today things feel very different. The teams of Lib Dem supporters criss crossing the county seats have not happened this time. In fact it looks as if outside of Cambridge Lib Dem candidates are operating very much as individuals with little or no support from anyone else.

Now, this could be because the Lib Dems have run out of supporters, all increasingly fed up with the spin and untruths of the party. Or a decision to pull back from the county seats to focus on Cambridge is the order of the day. With Cambridge elections next year, with the very real possibility of the Lib Dems losing control of the city, it feels like they are fighting a rear guard action.

This will be particularly important in 2015 when the Lib Dem MP Julian Huppert is up for re-election. I think he is likely to lose his seat given he seems to be backing an increasingly ideology based set of policies.

Julian Huppert does not support the upgrade of the A14. He does not want the police to have the tools they need to police our county. He seems to support legalising drug use. His party is very pro Europe and seeks further handing over of powers to them. This all feels like Julian is out of touch with real people and increasingly sounding like a shrill ideology based theorist.

Phil Rogers has carried out some excellent analysis here. If he is right the Lib Dems could be wiped out. http://philrodgers.wordpress.com/2013/04/30/the-county-elections-in-cambridge-ward-by-ward/

Electioneering

Response on the door step in my Fulbourn division remains very positive. People seem to get the difficult times we are in but like to see our focus on helping to stimulate the economy whilst at the same time supporting vulnerable people.

This afternoon I took time off from my own division to go and help James Hockney fight the Waterbeach seat. James is very well thought of locally and clearly understands the local issues.

I was very surprised to hear that the Lib Dem candidate was waging an unpleasant negative campaign. Michael Williamson, the previous Lib Dem councillor is standing down this election. I always got on well with Michael who I always considered to be on the sensible side of the Lib Dem party at Shire Hall. It looks like he is distancing himself from the antics of the prospective Lib Dem candidate. He needs to.

I think James has proved himself to be a fair, honest and hardworking local politician and I expect to see him in Shire Hall on the 3rd May.

This afternoon,I took a call from Bob Neill MP who is the Vice-Chairman (Local Government) of the Conservative Party. He was interested in how things were going in Cambridgeshire and was pleased with the feedback I was able to give him.

Charity cricket match – Needingworth – Wednesday evening in aid of beating bowel cancer

I am playing in a charity cricket match Wednesday evening starting at 6pm, at the Needingworth cricket ground in aid of bowel cancer. The electioneering can wait for an evening

If you can help promote this event that would be great. Tweets and retweets especially welcome.

I used to play for Needingworth many years ago and am looking forward to a guest appearance for this excellent cause.

The easiest way to donateis to visit the website Beating Bowel Cancer on www.beatingbowelcancer.org and there is an easy online donation option or calling 0208 614 3853 for a verbal transaction.

Treading Wind Farm public inquiry – Wisbech

In Wisbech today it was my pleasure to speak at the public inquiry to strongly oppose the wind farm.

I made the point that whilst I am not an expert on planning I do have the largest democratic mandate, representing all 680,000 people of Cambridgeshire. I made three points.

Firstly, I believe that the will of Parliament is not being heard. Government is clear. A key plank of its policy is localism which means decisions being made at the lowest practical level. In this case, local people, the parish council, the district council, the local county councillor and local MP don’t want the wind farm. Local opinion should carry significant weight or we create a democratic deficit.

Secondly, the planning system is being brought into disrepute. What is the point of the planning process, which embeds democratic accountability at its core, if the decision can be overturned by a planning inspector? This seems out of step with localism.

Thirdly, I explained my Cabinet felt it necessary to not allow any further wind farms on the 33,000 acres of county land because faith in the planning process had been lost. We are elected to represent the views of local people and their voices must be heard.

Some fine words from Steven Barclay MP and Cllr Steve Tierney both who are very passionate about the local area.

Interestingly, a Lib Dem candidate for the county elections also opposed the wind farm. Common sense prevailing at last or perhaps a good understanding of where the votes are to be found?

Well worth the drive to Wisbech.

Twentieth anniversary of the Teversham Warden scheme

Yesterday I attended a celebration of the warden scheme in Teversham. It was set up twenty years ago by Dave Kelleway, and is supported by the county council, SCDC, the Parish Council and the Marshall Group.

This combination of public and private finance has meant this scheme has survived and is thriving. It is unusual because the warden checks on people in their own homes rather than sheltered accommodation.

I want to see if we can use this model or working elsewhere. It was fantastic to talk with some of the vulnerable people who we say are our priority. Cost effective schemes like this help to keep people living independent lives and save us money, as the alternative might be residential care.

This scheme is managed by Age UK.

BBC – Analysis shows Conservatives winning and very popular

Interesting analysis from the BBC. Often it is claimed that the BBC is a left wing supporter but this report seems fair and balanced.

08:28 Friday 19th April 2013
Bigger Breakfast Show
BBC Radio Cambridgeshire

PAUL STAINTON: Cambridgeshire goes to the polls in just under two weeks time, on May 2nd, to vote on who should run the County Council for the next four years. The Council responsible of course for things like social care, education and transport. So whether you realise or not, you probably use Council services each and every week. At the moment, the Conservative Party are in overall control, holding 39 of the 69 seats. But with the Coalition Government’s policies being a bit unpopular to say the least at the moment, will we see voters turning against them? Well our Election Reporter Emma Howgego joins me in the studio. Morning Emma.

EMMA HOWGEGO: Good morning Paul.

PAUL STAINTON: So we’re true blue in Cambridgeshire at the moment. Is there going to be a bit of a change at Shire Hall though?

EMMA HOWGEGO: Well to be honest I think it’s unlikely the Tories will lose control at Cambridgeshire this year. Like you said, they currently have 39 out of the total 69 seats. The LibDems are their nearest rivals with 21. And despite their national policy being very unpopular, the Conservatives locally do have a lot of momentum here. They’re very popular, particularly in the rural Northern parts of the County.

PAUL STAINTON: Ah but local elections, they are traditionally a time, aren’t they, when we get votes for opposition parties, protest votes.

EMMA HOWGEGO: Yes. I think the problem with Labour at the moment is they’re starting from a very low base in Cambridgeshire. They have just three councillors. Only two of those were voted in in 2009. One of them was voted in during a by-election in Arbury last year. But, having said that, in the last couple of years their share of the vote has been increasing in the City Council elections in Cambridge. But in the rest of the County they are unlikely to make any significant gains.

PAUL STAINTON: But of course in parts of Cambridgeshire there has been a significant rise in popularity for Ukip.

EMMA HOWGEGO: There has, certainly a little bit, particularly in the Northern parts of the County. In Fenland in particular Ukip are seeing a little bit of momentum going, so that will be an interesting bit to watch as well.

PAUL STAINTON: Yes. Very big in Ramsey of course. So which wards do you think will change political allegiance?

EMMA HOWGEGO: Well I think the key seats to watch are actually going to be in Cambridge, particularly in the Northern wards. Kings Hedges returned a Labour City councillor last year. They currently have a Liberal Democrat County councillor, but Andy Pellew is stepping down. Just over on the other side of the Milton Road in East Chesterton, that will be interesting, because the current Liberal Democrat councillor Ian Manning is facing opposition from Labour’s Clare Blair. Now you may remember she used to be a Liberal Democrat. She was a City councillor until 2011, got beat by Labour’s Gerri Bird, and then joined the Labour Party, now standing against her former colleagues. Elsewhere like you mentioned a moment ago, Ukip are hoping to do well. Now they’re hoping to retain the seat of Bourn in South Cambridgeshire. The current councillor there, Lister Wilson, he actually won it for the Conservatives in 2009, but he was later suspended from the Party and he joined Ukip last year. And Ukip didn’t actually have a candidate in Bourn in 2009, so actually voting for Ukip there is a bit of an unchartered territory. And Wisbech is going to be the other interesting one to watch this year. Samantha Hoy retained it for the Conservatives in a by-election in 2010. But there is a very strong Independent candidate there, Virginia Bucknor, and Labour also putting a lot of effort into that ward, with Ukip standing as well. Interestingly up there the Liberal Democrats haven’t put forward a candidate in Wisbech North. That’s despite coming in a close second in the 2010 vote. Now my sources suggest that it could be because the Liberal Democrats think that standing against the Independent candidate would simply be handing the Conservative an easy win in that ward.

PAUL STAINTON: Emma, thank you for that. Of course one of the big issues in local elections is voter apathy. In 2009 the turnout just under 40%. Not great.

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Conservative campaign – positive and well received

A great day in my division. Lots of leaflets dropped and some great chats. I have been encouraged by the many offers of help and messages of support.

Speaking on the doorstep, unhappiness with national politicians of all parties is raised. When I have explained our local priorities of protecting the vulnerable, helping people live healthy and independent lives and driving the economy they get more engaged.

When I explain what we have been up to over the last two years people can see we are a party of getting things done rather than talking about it.

It’s great to be able to talk about Superfast broadband, the new station in Cambridge, bringing forward the A14 upgrade, the Ely bypass and more. Opposition parties can’t claim any success because they are not able to deliver anything. All they can talk about are promises for the future with not track record.

I have had lots of comments about the Lib Dems. People are confused because they are in coalition in government but want to appose all the time. How can they look both ways, I’m asked? If you know the Lib Dems like I do it’s not just two ways they look they can normally mange half a dozen.

I nipped up to join a canvassing team in Histon later in the day. Great response. Lots of indications that people get the financial problems we face and think we are the party to put it right. Labour is still, rightly, held to blame for the mess we are in. Again lots of confused people not understanding where the Lib Dems sit, in coalition or opposition.

I bumped into David Jenkins, the Lib Dem candidate for Histon. We had a pleasant chat. Apart from being perpetually negative about everything I like David. It must have been a shock to him seeing a dozen Conservatives, one county council leader and an MEP all knocking on doors in his street.

Overall a very positive day.

Picture taken meeting the Duke of Edinburgh

Conservative campaign for the county elections – fantastic so far.

I’m getting lots of very positive messages from Conservative candidates from all over the county. Feedback from canvassing is really good.

In the south of the county the Lib Dems seem to have fallen away significantly with a slight rise in Labour support. UKIP have no traction. The Conservative vote is holding up and if anything we should be looking forward to winning more seats than last time.

Some spectacular own goals by the Lib Dems in Cambridge City Council have really helped.

Seeking to hold a public meeting behind closed doors to examine the £2.3m error in accounting is not understood by anyone. It is very odd given the normal semi religious Lib Dem doctrine of everything must be held in public. What is being hidden I’m asked and of course, I have no idea but it doesn’t look right.

The other issue people just don’t understand is the refusal of the Lib Dems to support the A14 upgrade. Voters are astonished. It’s almost as if the Lib Dems are in self destruct mode.

In the north of the county the impact of UKIP is much less than expected especially now they seem to be falling over themselves. I seems the Lib Dem vote is in hiding. Surprisingly, the number of independents standing are much fewer than expected.

I am hearing about lots of support for our priorities of supporting vulnerable people and stimulating the economy. They seem to be particularly impressed with what we are actually doing. Superfast broadband, Ely bypass, Kings Dyke crossing, new station in Cambridge and the A14 upgrade. Action speaks louder than words.

Personally, I’m glad I managed to sign my personal letters to all my postal voters without getting writers cramp. Well over 700 signatures in three ours !!!

Small businesses should decide where to base themselves

Ed Miliband seems to want a return to the bad old days of Labour interventions. Lurching to the left is causing concerns for Tony Blair and should scare the life out of all of us.

I’m old enough to remember the 1970s with the industrial disputes, the inefficient state run industries and the civil unrest.

Giving powers to councils for them to decide where businesses should trade is madness.

Dr Eamonn Butler, director of the Adam Smith Institute, writes in the Independent that it should be up to small businesses and not Ed Miliband to decide where they should locate their premises.

He was speaking after the Labour leader proposed new powers for councils to prevent too many of the same kind of business opening up in one area. Markets don’t work that way.

Dr Butler says that Mr Miliband shows no understanding of business or economic history.